Diminuição da população pode diminuir a prosperidade do país até o fim do século
Foto: Resi Kling via UnSplash
Estudo ainda indica piora nas percepções dos jovens em relação a satisfação e felicidade; pandemia contribuiu na piora dos números
O número de jovens de 15 a 29 anos no Brasil cairá significativamente nos próximos 40 anos, podendo ser reduzido quase à metade ao fim deste século. Este recrudescimento da população jovem diminuirá as possibilidades de prosperidade da nação e pode fazer com que, pela primeira vez, haja falta de mão de obra no país.
O levantamento é do Centro de Políticas Sociais da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), em parceria com o projeto do “Atlas das Juventudes”, e se baseou em dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), da ONU e do DataSus.
Para Marcelo Neri, diretor da FGV Social e autor do levantamento, essa perspectiva de redução populacional entre os jovens se dá em decorrência da queda de fertilidade feminina (em 1970 cada mulher tinha em média 5,8 filhos hoje menos de 2); do aumento de expectativa de vida dos idosos, o que dilui mais a proporção de jovens na população; do desenvolvimento econômico e da instituição de previdência pública.
De acordo com a FGV, o Brasil se manteve por quase duas décadas com pouco mais de 50 milhões de pessoas na faixa entre 15 e 29 anos de idade – números sem precedentes na história. O quantitativo foi o dobro do observado em 1970, por exemplo.
Porém, após um período de intenso crescimento, desde 2009, quando tivemos registrados 52,3 milhões de jovens (recorde de registro), o número vem reduzindo lentamente ano após ano. Nos próximos 40 anos a redução deve acelerar de forma acentuada e já é prevista a perda de um quarto do tamanho da população de jovens.
“O Brasil vai andar com o vento contra – e antes o vento estava a favor. Tínhamos a maior juventude da história tanto passada como prospectiva. Tínhamos também uma população ativa crescente, só que isso já virou e vai se aprofundar ao longo do tempo. A própria pandemia pode estar levando à queda de natalidade, o que pode agravar essas projeções. Vamos viver pela primeira vez na história a falta de mão de obra no país. Isso joga contra o crescimento”, alertou Neri.
“A transição no Brasil está sendo super acelerada. Não aproveitamos esse bônus demográfico, não crescemos quando o vento soprava a favor e não qualificamos bem a nossa população”, ponderou Marcelo Neri. “Seja qual for o cenário econômico do país, há a necessidade de qualificar melhor a mão de obra jovem”, concluiu.
Essa projeção de redução da população jovem é também observada na maioria dos países. De acordo com projeções da ONU, até 2060, o percentual de jovens vai diminuir em 95% dos 201 países com projeções populacionais.
Atualmente, o Japão tem o menor percentual de jovens do mundo (14,7%), seguido por Itália (15%), Espanha (15,3%), Grécia (15,9%) e Portugal (15,9%). Todos esses países têm projeções de queda para os próximos anos, porém uma queda pouco acentuada.
Dentre os países com as projeções mais elevadas em relação a população jovem estão Taiwan, cuja projeção de queda até 2060 indica um percentual de jovens em 12,9%, seguido por Porto Rico (12,8%), Albânia (12,8%), Singapura (12,6%) e Coreia do Sul (11,7%).
Este último será o menor percentual de jovens em todo o mundo segundo a ONU. Já o percentual brasileiro projetado é de 15,3% e estará mais próximo desse extremo mínimo sul-coreano do que da média mundial (20%), de acordo com o levantamento feito.
Níveis nacionais
Dentre os estados do Brasil, o Rio de Janeiro é o que apresenta o menor percentual de jovens do país (22,1%). Depois aparecem o Rio Grande do Sul (22,1%) e São Paulo (22,2%), seguidos por outros estados do Sul e Sudeste.
O maior percentual de pessoas entre 15 e 29 anos está no estado do Amapá (29,1%), seguido por Acre (28,7%), Roraima (28,6%) e outros estados das regiões Norte e Nordeste.
Já entre as cidades, ainda segundo o estudo, a mais jovem é Pracinha, em São Paulo, com 48,2% desta população. A menos jovem é Mato Queimado, no Rio Grande do Sul, com 11,99%. Segundo o levantamento, dos 20 municípios menos jovens no país, 18 estão no Rio Grande do Sul.
Percepções do jovem brasileiro
O estudo também levou em consideração quais são as percepções do jovem brasileiro. Em relação a “satisfação com a vida no presente”, em uma escala de 0 a 10, o país presenciou uma queda contínua nos últimos anos. Em 2020, indicador mais recente disponível, o índice era de 6,4 pontos, o nível mais baixo da série brasileira de satisfação com a vida.
Entre 2013 e 2014, por exemplo, o patamar atingido foi de 7,2 pontos. De lá para cá, este número só caiu. Também pioraram as avaliações gerais que abordam emoções do dia a dia sentidas pela juventude. Os indicadores positivos (alegria) e negativo (preocupação e raiva) pioraram, especialmente quando da recessão econômica e em 2020, em decorrência da pandemia.
Ainda de acordo com o levantamento da FGV, em relação ao sentimento de alegria, entre os anos de 2015 e 2018, 86,6% dos jovens afirmaram ter sorrido ou rido muito na véspera. Porém, a pandemia fez com que esse índice caísse para 76%. Já em relação aos jovens brasileiros preocupados, o índice passou de 44%, entre 2015 e 2018, para 59% em 2020, atingindo um novo recorde e demonstrando uma “hiper preocupação juvenil”.
Outros dados que também chamam atenção no levantamento apontam que 41% dos jovens entre 15 e 29 anos estão satisfeitos com o sistema educacional em 2020. Este foi o menor nível da série, segundo o levantamento da FGV. Já a proporção de jovens brasileiros satisfeitos com as medidas adotadas em relação à preservação do meio ambiente caiu de 33,1% em 2015-18, para 27% em 2019 e depois 19% em 2020.
Fonte: CNN Brasil
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