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Covid-19: tabela ajuda a avaliar risco de infecção cada vez que você vai a um evento social

Será que vai ser possível reunir a família — ou ao menos parte dela — nas festas de fim de ano? Quando exatamente é seguro participar de um evento em meio à pandemia de covid-19?

Com os números de casos e mortes ainda crescendo em todo o mundo e a dificuldade de manter a população em isolamento social, um novo estudo tenta ajudar as pessoas avaliar o risco de cada situação.

Pesquisadores da Universidade de Oxford, no Reino Unido, e do Instituto de Tecnologia de Massachusetts (MIT, na sigla em inglês), nos Estados Unidos, criaram uma tabela que considera fatores como o uso de máscaras, o tempo de contato com outras pessoas, a ventilação do local, a quantidade de pessoas e até o que elas estão fazendo — falar, cantar, gritar ou permanecer em silêncio.

“O risco de infecção é determinado por muitos fatores, e todos eles estão conectados“, disse à BBC News Brasil Lydia Bourouiba, diretora do Laboratório de dinâmica de fluidos na transmissão de doenças do MIT e uma das autoras do estudo.

“Ainda não há nenhum estudo que determine o risco absoluto de cada atividade, mas, com essa tabela, queremos que as pessoas saibam avaliar o risco relativo de cada situação. Assim elas podem se adaptar.”

Por exemplo, se o evento ao qual você foi convidado é um karaokê, em uma sala fechada onde as pessoas estarão gritando e cantando, o melhor a fazer é certificar-se de que poucas pessoas estarão presentes, e ficar o mínimo de tempo possível. Sem esquecer de usar a máscara.

Ou simplesmente sugerir uma reunião com os mesmos amigos em um local aberto, onde seja possível manter uma distância maior e sem música alta — para que não seja necessário gritar.

“Isso é importante porque, se você dá às pessoas uma só regra rigorosa, o que acaba acontecendo na maioria das vezes é que algumas não aplicam a regra, ou aplicam só durante algum tempo. É difícil pedir à população que fique em alerta máximo por meses“, opina a pesquisadora.

Confira a tabela:

Distância, ventilação e tempo

No artigo, os pesquisadores argumentam que o distanciamento entre um e dois metros entre pessoas como forma de prevenir a infecção pelo Sars-Cov-2 é uma orientação simplista, porque se se baseia em estudos do século 19 sobre como vírus e bactérias se propagariam no ar a partir da fala, da tosse e dos espirros.

Mas isso não quer dizer que essa regra, usada na maioria dos espaços públicos e privados atualmente, deva ser ignorada. É justamente o contrário.

Pesquisas mais recentes mostram que vírus podem se espalhar em gotículas no ar por até seis a oito metros a depender da situação. Por isso, dois metros deve, em alguns casos, ser a distância mínima, não a máxima, a se manter de alguém.

“A regra dos dois metros não considerava o quadro total da exalação de partículas suspensas no ar e de como elas se movem. Hoje sabemos que não é só porque você mantém esses dois metros de distância que está seguro”, diz Bourouiba.

Aí entram os outros fatores considerados na tabela, como o tempo que dura o evento — ou o tempo que você permanece nele, em contato com outras pessoas.

Mas o que exatamente seria um tempo curto ou longo? De acordo com a pesquisadora, ainda é difícil responder.

“Alguns órgãos de saúde têm considerado que de 10 a 15 minutos é um tempo curto e, acima disso, um tempo longo. Mas não há justificativa científica para embasar esses números. Por isso, decidimos não incluí-los na tabela“, explica.

“O que sabemos até agora é que, em um caso de estudo, onde houve infecção em um restaurante mal ventilado, as pessoas infectadas, que estavam sem máscaras, permaneceram lá ao mesmo tempo por cerca de 45 minutos. Mas precisamos de mais evidências para dar peso a esse número.”

Da mesma forma, definir se um evento tem ocupação alta ou baixa não depende apenas de quantas pessoas há no local, segundo Bourouiba.

Também é importante saber se elas têm ar fresco suficiente para respirar e estão fora das zonas de respiração uma da outra — ou seja, estão a mais de 25 centímetros de distância da boca e do nariz de alguém que está respirando normalmente.

“Cada pessoa deve ter ao menos 10 a 15 litros de ar fresco por segundo. Nós não temos como calcular isso no dia a dia, mas é uma medida importante para os responsáveis pelos espaços de eventos, restaurantes, escritórios, etc. Eles precisam saber se seus espaços precisarão ser ampliados ou reformados”, alerta.

O mais importante, segundo a pesquisadora, é garantir a circulação de ar limpo, de preferência que venha de fora: “Não é suficiente apenas mover o ar, como um ventilador ou um ar-condicionado fazem. É preciso trocá-lo, para diluir as partículas que nós exalamos no ar novo“.

Por essa razão é preferível estar em espaços abertos ou com janelas que permitam a circulação do ar. E, mesmo assim, ainda é preciso prestar atenção em como ele circula.

“Se você abre uma janela em um restaurante, por exemplo, mas há uma mesa com clientes ali, o ar novo estará sempre passando por aquelas pessoas e levando possíveis patógenos a outras. Você tem que usar a ventilação natural tendo consciência do fluxo do ar”, afirma a pesquisadora do MIT.

Como se comportar em cada situação?

Considerar tantos fatores para fazer qualquer atividade, mesmo com a ajuda de uma tabela, é complexo, mas tem se mostrado necessário.

De acordo com os dados mais recentes da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD Covid-19), do IBGE, o número de pessoas rigorosamente isoladas por causa da pandemia no Brasil caiu em cerca de 2 milhões entre a primeira e a segunda semanas de setembro.

Já os que afirmaram ter reduzido o contato, mas continuaram saindo ou recebendo visitas aumentou em 2,5 milhões. Atualmente, 83,2 milhões de brasileiros têm um comportamento flexível quanto ao distanciamento social.

O Brasil tem mais de 147 mil mortes e quase 5 milhões de casos registrados de covid-19. De acordo com a Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), os casos tiveram tendência de estabilidade em patamares altos durante o mês de setembro na média móvel de sete dias — foram registradas mais de 26,4 mil novas infecções por dia.

Segundo Lydia Bourouiba, é preciso ter alguns cuidados básicos em cada situação da tabela:

  • Risco baixo – Tente manter ao menos dois metros de distância de outras pessoas e usar máscara. “Não é porque você está a dois metros que pode tirar a máscara e não é porque está de máscara que pode chegar mais perto. Mas, se tiver que se aproximar rapidamente de alguém, não precisa entrar em pânico, não é o fim do mundo“, diz.
  • Risco médio – Seja mais rígido com a regra dos dois metros de distância. Se possível, fique um pouco mais distante, a depender dos outros fatores na situação.
  • Risco alto – Dois metros deve ser a distância mínima a ser mantida de alguém, mas o ideal é ficar ainda mais afastado do que isso, e usando uma máscara de qualidade.

“Sabemos que é complicado, mas tentamos organizar isso de uma forma que possa ser compreendida por todos, desde a família que quer organizar um churrasco até o gerente de um escritório. Porque todos vamos ter que administrar essas situações“, afirma a pesquisadora.

Fonte: BBC Brasil

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